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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Americas  Bloomberg  February 14, 2020 7:00am-9:00am EST

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stocks hit a new cycle low with u.s. retail sales on deck. the currency sinking while german growth stagnates, and china stimulus, the good and the bad. the market expects more -- [applause] -- [no audio] alix: -- markets here. you can expect we will not see a huge amount of positions being taken on into the weekend. typically you have seen a lot of taking on in treasuries, a lot of selling in stocks. euro-dollar continuing a slow grind lower after the last nine days, and a bid at the back end of the treasury market. commodities getting a bit of a respite, which is odd because we could have more oil coming on as early as sunday.
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let's get your global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from all around the world. from hong kong to munich to paris washington to sarasota, florida and new york, our bloomberg voices are on the ground with today's top stories. there are questions about transparency for china. rishaad salamat joins us from hong kong. walk us through some of the latest. now with63,000 cases the death toll up by 121, but the inconsistency in the numbers has led to a lot of questions. some of them are not being answered, and that has led to people thinking that this disease is not really going away at the moment. we had some optimism a couple of days ago, but that has receded somewhat. we've also got bickering between washington and beijing.
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the u.s. saying they have been denied that. on a microeconomic level, we've got companies such as fiat chrysler halting production in one of its plants in serbia. they can't get enough parts out of china. if you want to buy a barbie doll in the future, mattel delaying production, saying that point production is falling. i'm going to leave you with a little bit of optimism. the chinese state biotech seeing says it has been dramatic improvements. back to you in london. alix: thank you. now we want to head to germany. gdp flatlined for the fourth quarter, which may leave the country vulnerable to trade
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uncertainty from the coronavirus threat. you can read this as a glass half-full or glass half-empty. reporter: you can, and you also need to make an important differentiation that u.s. viewers might find interesting. the german look at the headline number is quarter over quarter gdp. in the u.s., we would look at year-over-year figures at the headline number. in that case, there was growth in the german economy, 0.3%. quarter over quarter, it is an absolute zero. a lot of factors leading to that. one of them is less government spending. you hear calls from the ecb, from christine lagarde for more stimulus. you heard calls from draghi for that as well. i think market watchers are hoping that christine lagarde is going to be more successful in getting that out of berlin. this number might help them do it because of course, they want to avoid a recession.
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they did avoid a recession, but the finance minister says -- the economy minister, i should say, says that the coronavirus is an increasing threat to the german economy. we saw the first factory in carpe idled in the industry. it was not a german carmaker, but fiat chrysler has idled in serbia because of the coronavirus screwing up their supply chain and making it impossible for them to get any work done. that kind of thing can happen in germany, too. that is the kind of threat they need to fight against. this figure doesn't really help them to prepare for the beginning of a difficult 2020. alix: it's a great point. thank you. now we had to france, where renaud is moving to a reinsurer investors. the automaker's interim ceo says they have a cost-cutting plan.
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abouterg spoke to her production. >> we had to close our plant in .ussan our auto plants going to be impacted? very much possible. alix: what were some of the biggest take from that interview? -- biggest takeaways from that interview? reporter: it has been a very ltfficult year for renau since the arrest of carlos ghosn, and the coronavirus is not making things any easier. you heard the ceo talking about some planned closures in south korea, and the supply chain could be disrupted as far as europe. we could see possible closer in renaud factories in france, and in europe as well. that is just one of the hurdles facing renault for 2020.
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they are also facing new regulations on emissions, and their partner nissan is also having a very difficult time. so the ceo announced this morning a new cost-cutting plan of 2 billion euros. exclude any plant closures, even in france, where it is a difficult, sensitive subject politically. she's going to give details on these plans in may, two months before the arrival of the new in july. if they want to do more cost-cutting, she says we will do more. alix: thank you so much. now we focus on trade. the u.s. and china phase i trade deal goes into effect today. for more on what is ahead, shawn donnan, bloomberg trade
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reporter. it is all good you get the headline today, but where does it go from here? shawn: a lot has changed in the last month. the coronavirus has cast a big doubts over whether china will be able to live up to its purchase commitments of $200 billion of additional u.s. buyrts it has promised to is part of this deal. the good news is we see some relatively small tariff cuts taking effect today on both sides. the u.s. is reducing the tariff rate on about $110 billion of tariff imports. the chinese, and a reciprocal move, are doing something similar with about $75 billion in exports to china. but it is fair to say that we have just as many questions about this deal today as we did a month ago when president trump signed that at the white house. the other big question that
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relates to all of the tariffs oft remain in place, on some $360 billion of imports from china, they will only go away, the administration says, once you have a phase two deal. we do not have any plans outlined at this point for a phase two deal. so the clock starts on those purchases today, but some huge questions about what comes next. alix: great recap. thank you very much. in the u.s., we get retail sales for january at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. joining me from sarasota, florida is michael mckee, who is there for a big interview. michael: the retail sales numbers are going to be of interest to the fed and to economists because consumers seem to slow down at the end of 2019. january is the month when everybody redeemed their gift cards that they got from the holidays, so we will see of spending held up.
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forecasts came in stronger, but a little weaker than it was in december. look for the retail control group, expected to be up 0.3%. we also have industrial production numbers, the manufacturing sector in a slump. we will see if they pull out of that. though, for the fed to see any reaction to the coronavirus from these numbers. aboute will be talking today with cleveland fed president read a master -- president loretta mester, this is when we are supposed to see some good news in the economy when tensions fall off with china come of it may be too early for that with the coronavirus. a lot to talk about with her. alix: looking forward to that. stay with us for mike's interview with loretta mester, coming up at about 12:30 p.m. in new york and 5:30 p.m. in london. in washington, attorney general
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william barr making a rare rebuke of president trump's tweets and public comments, saying it makes his job impossible. mr. barr: i cannot do my job here at the department with constant background commentary that undercuts me. alix: david westin, host of "bloomberg: balance of power" and "wall street week" if you're was more. i was stunned that this happened. david: and you should be stunned. it was extra mary. roger stone was supposed to be sentenced, and the justice department had a recommendation. the president tweeted it was --iculous, and justice barr changed it. now he has thousands of prosecutors who are not sure whether he is calling the shots. o of them quit.
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-- four of them quit. and those judges have to ask themselves, is this a political motivation? the question is what does this mean for attorney general barr and for the president. i don't think any cabinet member has ever publicly done this. is it conceivable that president might actually listen a lot of republicans have been urging him to do that. alix: thank you so much. you will also be joining us later. another story we are watching, big changes on the way at world bank of scotland. they have a new ceo abandoning the bank's three century-old name. it will be renamed natwest group. they are also adopting the english branch network used two decades ago. they say they continue to see challenges on its income. >> we are clearly going to incur some losses in terms of the resizing of natwest markets. the yield curve is still going
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in this direction, and in our base case, we are anticipating we will have another year of curve cuts. those things all make income harder, particularly for banks. alix: rbs also said it was cutting targets for the year and would focus on lending that doesn't have carbon emissions. coming up, more on your morning your trade analysis of the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ alix: time now for bloomberg first take. we give you the news, you get the trade and analysis of the markets. joining us is marcus ashworth, bloomberg opinion columnist, and
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also joining us is jordan rochester, nomura international g10 fx strategist. do? do you coronavirus is showing some signs potentially, but the reality is it could get moment,ain, and at the it has been going to the moon. left.has got some yield alix: you can't by greece anymore. guy: nor should you, i would argue. fact we have seen a relatively mild european testing today,- european session i think we will see some trimming of positions because we don't know how the weekend will play out with respect to the
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virus numbers. jordan: over the weekend, we could have more bad news. so i am the pessimist here. alix: your kind of that guy. [laughter] jordan: a good trade has been actually to be long vol over the weekend. typically on a friday, traders cut their positions because they think over the weekend, i don't want to pay for the extra carry. actually, we tend to get big moves on mondays, when we've had two days of information. new headlinessome about factories closing down. had that one in europe already. said this is a new narrative. i have to be the realist. alix: but there is no volatility. where? where do you go? jordan: it is all about asia, and now about euro and the g10. very cheap vol levels. this is becoming more interesting for europe.
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euro-dollar looks really cheap compared to historical levels, now breaching below $1.09. to $1.08s up the $1.05 range. look at euro on a broad measure. euro's not that cheap. our base case is more optimistic . the end of the year, we will have dollar selling off. andeuro will be higher, humbly factories go back to work in the next few months. for the time being, we just don't know. and euro still operates like a risk off currency. marcus: the only thing keeping the european economy alive is the fact that the currency is we getting because the rest is unrelenting bad news. laura: at the same time, i think next week we are going to see potential he some of the virus impact play out. we are expected to get sentiment
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indicators from germany and february pmi's. if we see virus fears relatively contained, that could provide a floor to europe. jordan: i said green shoots about a month ago. the data was getting better. we started to see new orders rising. alix: but couldn't had have been worse -- but couldn't it have been worse? whole point.s the last year's last year. everyone keeps expecting a bounce in europe. every times it get -- every time it gets whack-a-moled. so why am i going to buy treasury and dollar all-day long? jordan: look at commodities.
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they moved massively. the dollar has actually been really small moves compared to historical levels. we are going to have a big drop in global pmi's, and the dollar has not reflected that. euro-dollar doesn't reflect that. marcus: believe in the optimism and buy copper because that is the one thing that is going to pick up. laura: you don't see this bond rally fading at any point, then? iscus: what is going on telling me that people are moving to protect themselves, stop the carry from going up. people are still buying bonds of the most ridiculous levels because they are insuring their per folios. laura: i agree. dearly we are seeing overstretched valuations in u.s. equities, futures positions poising to euphoria within the market. that is why we are seeing this correlation between bonds and stocks where they are. jordan: let's say treasuries
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selloff 15 basis point. do you sell or do you buy? points --15 this is 15 basis point, yes, please. alix: we heard yesterday the fed is going to pare back what they are offering in the repo market. if the narrative is you got stocks because they are expanding their balance sheet, don't you have to now sell equities? laura: i don't think so. i think the market expectation has been that the fed is going to be the backstop, and any kind of volatility, i would expect that the fed is going to step in and provide liquidity to the market. ultimately, they are saying inflation and full employment mandate, but ultimately, it is becoming around fostering financial conditions to support the equity market. marcus: they have to keep the liquidity. it is the one thing they can do. not qe, but everyone reads through that. the point is they are going to
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-- [indiscernible] jordan: equities have been the least macro market of all of them. alix:alix: so shouldn't the dollar be weaker? jordan: not with the risk off we are going to see. the u.s. consumer is on fire. while manufacturing has slowed down significantly america, is stillles numbers the upper form story versus europe, when you've got all of this uncertainty for manufacturing, the consumer is not on fire in europe. so we were expecting green shoots, manufacturing pickup, europe to do better, and that was going to lead to the dollar being weaker. those green shoots are now brown shoots. it is not going to happen for the time being, until we see chinese workers going back to work. once we see that, we are back on. alix: they are not all of a sudden going to rush out the doors. it is going to take a slow grind, see you are not going to get all of a sudden. marcus: china may well chuck a
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load more at it, but you're absolutely right. until we see a return to work in a meaningful sense, you have to be pretty skeptical on this. alix: really appreciate it. marcus ashworth and lara cooper, thanks so much. jordan rochester of nomura is going to stick with me. go to gtv under terminal. you can browse the features and safety charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
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viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." will sayerberg facebook may have to pay more tax and pay in different places, according to multiple reports. the ceo speaking to a security conference tomorrow in munich, expected to say he understands the frustration about how tech companies are taxed in europe.
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wells fargo plans to cut hundreds of workers in the philippines. some of those jobs will be moved to india, where the bank already has about 12,000 workers. wells fargo is joining a push across the banking industry to have tech workers in fewer locations. dividend,ashed its all supposed to gets first lost -- first loss in a decade. full-year operating income plunged to a worse than expected early percent. -- worse than expected 30%. alix: let's stay on autos for a second. tesla shares have risen about 83% since the start of the year. abouthas actually raised $14 billion over the last decade. investors really don't seem to care. instead of punishing the company for diluting shares, the market
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continues to send stock higher. why wouldn't they ask for more equity if everyone keeps on buying? similar story with its debt. we will break down more later in the program. coming up, the u.s. and china bigger over the coronavirus. the white house is questioning china's transparency. we will be joined by george magnus, oxford china associate. you are looking at a long weekend in the u.s., and a tiny bit of risk on in the commodity and equity market, but still the bid into treasuries. this is bloomberg. ♪ when it comes to using data,
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no one else lets you do that. design your own data with xfinity mobile. it's wireless reimagined. simple. easy. awesome. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm alix steel. happy valentine's day. typically, we have seen a little buying in the equity markets and
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selling in the treasury market on fridays. we will see if that plays out today as well. the dax up 0.2% despite that on a sequential basis, german fourth quarter gdp was terrible, but it could have been worse. see aollar, do we breakdown through $1.08 and then $1.05? euros swissie breaking down as well. from the toll coronavirus is hitting a 1380 as the uss china won't let its health workers fight the virus -- u.s. says china won't let its health workers fight the virus. towe thought there is going be more transparency, but we are a bit disappointed. we are more than willing to work who on this, and they won't let us. i don't know what their motives are. i do know that more and more
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people are suffering over there, and that is not a good thing. georgeutting me now, magnus, oxford university china centre associate. also from new york is bloomberg's david westin, host of "balance of power" and "wall street week," and still with me is jordan rochester of nomura. how did this come up on your inll street week" program relation to the virus? david: this has got to be the big story of the week, and you can come about it from all different ways. what does it mean for the economy, for the u.s. economy, for markets? we talked about do we know what the numbers really are. they said no, it is not different from anything else in china. we ask, did using there's going to be a fairly quick rebound, or will it take longer? this is what they said. >> there's a perception in the market that this is not going to
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event from anking economic point of view, and we may even be on the downward side of the curve in terms of the number of cases. david: i followed up, saying is l.s a v, a u, or an sars, with a, like quick rebound. alix: george, what do you think? do think the economic consequences of this are pretty severe. provinces are accounted for about 80% of china's gdp, 10% of global gdp, that have effectively shut down. .e can all do the maths everyone has explained ad nausea him now it will be -- explained ad nausea him -- explained ad
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.auseam now u?ix: is it a v, a george: at the moment, i think it is an l. we don't really know how long it is going to go on for. but if the infection rate basically stabilizes and starts to reverse by the end of this month or in march, it is quite possible, probable actually, that we will see gradual normalization in the second quarter. but i don't think it is going to be a v-shaped pattern. i think it is going to be a gentle up. jordan: when you advise people on that, you get much pushback? it's a good point. i think people, when everybody has done their sars homework, i think this is a little bit
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different. it is nuanced. 1/6002, china's economy was of the size it is today. on the other hand, the bounce back from sars was taking place in a much more benevolent, benign period for the chinese economy. even before this took hold in china, it was facing severe structural headwinds, and those headwinds remain. jordan: i completely agree. you also had china's ascension to the wto going full throttle. whatever the u.s. and europe did , what difference china did. whatever happens in china happens in europe three months later. all of that questions the market pricing we have right now. alix: and trickles down to the u.s. as well. david: i would be curious about george's reaction to this. don't underestimate the capability of the chinese government to intervene, and not
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just the size, but how targeted it can be given their structure. they can go very specific, both geographically and by sector, where they need more money, and that can help the recovery speed along. alix: what do you think, george? george: yeah, ish. up until the time when everyone was starting to freak out about the coronavirus, we were getting used to the idea that china was continuing to drip some stimulus into the economy, but this was very much set of bochy -- very voce.otto restricted,e very even those that are going back to work. so the liquidity pumping, yes.
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credit encouragement, also that. the whole thing. , ifink that bond issuance local governments pick up their bond issuance quotas for the first quarter, spending issuance by local governments will be about 40% of what it was a year ago. about 40% up from what it was a year ago. but where they get traction is a moot point. jordan: i think the focus is all on china, as it rightly should be. the numbers are still small. you've got around 500 cases globally outside of china of the coronavirus. but you plotted on a chart and it is doing an x potential of drift. it is not long -- doing an exponential up drift. i think we are still in the
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uncertainty phase of all of this, and i don't think we will get that clarity next week or the week after. george: the nuanced to that, the issue is not really the infection itself. it is how governments respond to it. expert,a public health but how the chinese government has reacted is in the script of the governance structure. it is total power and authority to clamp down on this. not sure anybody else will do this, self quarantining and self isolation. there will be lots of guidance from our health authorities and so on. this is not something i would expect other governments to pursue. i think the chinese government is taking this almost personally , if you see what i mean. it is seen as a threat which they've got to be seem to master. david: one of the things that was interesting, we had dan
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juergen on to talk about the effects on oil. he said just when we thought we were getting past some of the trade conflicts with phase one going into effect, may be getting away from the so-called decoupling, maybe we are going back to ada fecteau decoupling decouplinga de facto because we might have some lingering effects beyond the immediate. alix: it also raises the question, doesn't make it more or less likely that china winds up opening more sectors and has more transparency later? we don't have a good read on that yet. like, the intro to that is yes. [laughter] don't think it is going to make them open up more. it's in their dna, actually. there's no reason why we should disbelieve any of the top chinese leadership. they will open up financial services and other sectors as
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was indicated in the phase i deal, to the extent that it suits them, and to the extent that other companies that want to do that are giving the chinese government something that they want, too. but i think it would be a mistake to believe that this health crisis is going to lead to china changing tack in terms of its overall political direction. jordan: it's definitely not the top of the list of their priorities right now. it's more about dealing with the virus itself. interesting about correlations, decoupling, that is good for foreign-exchange volatility end rates volatility. in most of the world, asset classes just follow each other. it's been a bit tricky for anyone who wants to arrange a value trade to do anything. this does lead to less globalization for a period. it doesn't mean you have great divergence. to me, the u.s. is more sheltered from the storm here. europe is more exposed.
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i don't think it will be able to shake this off very quickly. alix: does that mean the record bond flows last week, that continues? jordan: if you suddenly have virus is, vaccine is done, then no. i think it is more about keeping track of how money people go back to work. the numbers are ridiculous. usually after the lunar new year, we have a big migration and everyone goes back to work. but currently, four out of five people are not working in china, so i am now tracking those numbers, not the iris numbers. i'm often keeping -- not the virus numbers. i am often keep an eye on both. but if that number rises, we are on the way back to recovery. alix: we have to leave it they are, unfortunately. jordan rochester of nomura, thank you. george magness of oxford university, really nice to see you in person. thanks to david westin as well.
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the voices you need to hear for the topics of the day. now i want to get an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: begin with a surprising rebuke of president trump from one of his most loyal cabinet members. attorney general william barr says that tweets about ongoing cases make his job impossible. he says the commentary undercuts him. president trump already vowed to veto a resolution to restrict his ability to wage war against iran. the u.s. senate approving the measure, expected to be passed by the u.s. house. eight republican senators joining the democrats in voting yes, but there aren't enough votes to override a presidential veto. we end with british prime minister boris johnson taking more control of the u.k. treasury. that could lead to a more generous trump style stimulus. rather than give to mr. johnson's demand to fire his top advisers, city javid --
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advisors, so she javid -- advisors, sajid javid quitting as chancellor of the exchequer. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: coming up, why your next investment should be in yourself. from chanel bags to nike sneakers, how you should be spending your bonus. that is coming up in today's "business week lowe's quote feature. if you have a terminal -- "business week" feature. if you have a terminal, you can take out tv for anything you have missed. this is bloomberg. ♪
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viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." canceledibbean cruises 18 sailings because of the coronavirus outbreak. this year, that will put a crimp in the cruise line's profits. royal caribbean will reduce her earnings by $.65 a share. now to airbus. it can't build planes fast enough amid the grounding of the. . 737 max. . the european company -- told planes fast enough. amid the grounding of the 737 max, the european company is getting the bulk of orders. the backlogugh gives airbus the opportunity to reshape the market for years. we end with sony, struggling with the price of its next playstation. scarce components are pushing manufacturing costs to about $450 per unit.
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bloomberg has learned sony may xbox to microsoft's make the first move. i'm viviana hurtado. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. we turn now to our weekly businessweek feature, where we profile some stories in the latest issue. this week, how to spend that bonus. first up, by and large chunks of land just makes sense. and then invest in a better world. you can always use your cash to benefit those in need, plus, buy yourself some stuff. it is ok to splurge on yourself. joining us is bloomberg pursuits editor. let's start with the property. why would we want to buy property right now? reporter: the whole point this year, your bonuses and appreciation for you, you should invest in something that will
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appreciate for yourself. property across the u.s., prices are just beginning to bounce back up because mortgage rates are so low, so why not invest in a piece of land that will become more valuable over time? we found a great one in upstate new york, in old chatham in the hudson valley, 200 acres and has a working farm, so it can make some money for you as you are just sitting there. alix: do you have to work in the farm? reporter: hopefully, you don't do the working. this is almost a $4 million property. hopefully you've got some money to invest in helping hands. farmhouse, as really beautiful place. really old school. alix: let's get to the second one, charity. this is what my husband spends his money on. actually get some bang for that buck? reporter: one of our favorites is the world central kitchen. they do a lot of amazing work in puerto rico and other places around the world that have been
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hit by natural disasters. for $10,000, you can actually buy a greenhouse for a working farmer or a walk-in refrigerator for a food provider, and no matter how much money they give you, they train people in the food industry, so you're giving people jobs that will last the rest of their lives, and also investing in the local community, so it is a really great cause. alix: what about visiting areas where you can spend your money to get there and then donate your time? reporter: this is another thing we love writing about. you can do that and actually help the world. elevate destinations is a place we love. it is in sri lanka. for a little more than $3000, you can take a trip there, and every trip that they do gives money to local communities to send their kids to cultural sites, and while you are there, you can actually help study elephants. it is a cool way to interact
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with elephants. elephant experiences aren't usually rate for the environment and for the elephants, but in this case, you can actually help them research elephants and improve the relationships between humans and elephants. alix: what's go -- let's go from altruistic to totally selfish. you have a couple of things you looked at. let's start with the chanel bags. reporter: you've heard of the bargain bag, probably the most investable bag, but in 2012, chanel came out with it the boy bag a sort of rectangular about this big, designed to be a clutch or hang or a -- hang on a metal strap. ory hold 74% of their value, in some cases, go up in value. you can get yourself a nice bag, and depending on the materials and hardware, it can actually go up in value. this is one of the new investable bags we love.
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if you are more into sneakers, maxave a $120 nike air corona released during the super bowl. it is in pink. you actually have to call and get them to sell it to you. there's a whole investment network to invest in sneakers, and this is just one way in. if you want some jewelry, cartier is the most investable and appreciated brand. there's a bangle that we found here in new york, and that is $8,800, and that is almost guaranteed to go up in value. alix: it is such a hard call. [laughter] reporter: take a trip. bloombergs rovzar of pursuits, thank you. pick up the latest issue of "numbered businessweek -- of "bloomberg businessweek." and for this week's on the
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beaten street, we go to switzerland. the big thing in 3d printing is chocolate. a little-known swiss chocolatier is behind the innovation giving gourmet clients access to a method of printing personalized designs enmass -- masse. i wonder if it tastes different? i don't know. coming up next, if you take a look at the attractiveness of italy, italy's bonds might be the best bet in europe. we will discuss why in today's trader's take. if you are heading out, tuning to bloomberg radio on sirius xm tune 119 and on the -- into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and on the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: time now for trader's take. going be once again, marcus ashworth, bloomberg opinion columnist. italian debt. really? marcus: yes, because in the land of nothing, the only thing that stands up with any sort of vague value is italy. do you really want to buy greece? junk, very liquid. but italy is a huge market, and it's got a much more stable political outlook now. most important of all, these apply to namic are in their the supplyf all, dynamics are in their favor. that's why i think it is 140 basis points over germany. it is still the only game in town if you have to buy european
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bonds. alix: can you hedge it? marcus: if you hedge it by that spread is higher than the last seven months, but i still think it can come even more. it could come into 100 easily. as a risk reward return for the next few months, italy is the only of any form of value. alix: did you ever think you would see italian bonds of 74 basis points in this world right now? marcus: greece is far more amazing, but italy had a real scare with its current government, but they've been limbic on -- they've been limping on. i think the politics will be quiet as it can be. alix: it weirdly makes it investable? marcus: yes, for a few months. alix: is it the opposite with germany? talk about political non-stability.
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marcus: i think germany is just germany. it is all held by the central banks, locked away. completely uninvestable as far as liquidity is concerned. -40 makes no sense either, but if the ecb has to cut rates, maybe germany goes even lower in yields. i would still weigh a what -- i would stay well away from bunds. alix: always fun. thanks for being here, marcus ashworth of bloomberg opinion. just the right kind of snarky for me. [laughter] up neil dwane of allie on, jane foley -- of all jane foley allianz, of rep. banks:, and liz young of bny mellon. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg
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daybreak" on this friday, february 14. i'm alix steel. let's take it from the top. >> some of the experts in our public health team are quite disappointed. we thought there was better transparency coming out of china, but there doesn't appear to be. alix: u.s. officials escalate criticism of china's response to the outbreak while the death toll rises to more than 1300. >> some of our businesses that rely on physical means of production on supply-side will show negative reckitt do -- will show negative revenue growth. alix: alibaba says the hit to growth could be sick for can. with a enters 2020 flattening economy is manufacturer's struggle. figure in q4 gdp is no surprise. the latest industrial figures and trend on the industrial side is really weak. alix: markets keep a close eye
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on the export pendant economy. do is workneed to with the u.k. economy as it transitions to this new world. alix: rbs changing its name to natwest, becoming a purpose lead organization, and cutting profitability targets. >> the reality is this is absolutely the right ambition. believe we are already leading in so many fronts. alix: the bank says it is a new era. >> i can it might -- i cannot do my job at the departed with constant background commentary that undercuts me. alix: attorney general william barr pushes back on trump in a rare rebuke over the president overbuke of the president the sensing of roger stone. sen. mcconnell: the president made a great choice when he chose william barr, and i think he should listen to his advice. alix: meanwhile, the white house
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says trump can air his opinion on social media just like everyone else. in the markets on this friday, what we typically see is some selling in equities and buying in the treasury market. today we are seeing both. we are seeing buying in the equities, as well as treasuries. 1.60% is where we print on the 10 year. the euro-dollar, $1.08. do we go to $1.05? joining murphy the hour is neil dwane, allianz global and -- joining me for the hour is neil dwane, allianz global investors global strategist. i thought they told me you were buying me a gift for valentine's day? now this is awkward. neil: i've got one. it is classically english. alix: that doesn't sound as appealing as chocolate. oh, perfume? this is my favorite.
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[laughter] neil: you weren't expecting that, were you? alix: i was not. that is fun. what about you? what are your clients talking to you about right now? neil: the markets were rallying through q4 enough to keep the economy going. nowink that is really moot with the coronavirus. we are working out what is to happen in china. the feedback from alibaba and such is useful. we don't believe that the hopeful rally is going to be sustained, and therefore, i feel more risk off in this market than the risk on. i agree with the people buying bonds rather than buying equities. alix: fair enough. we have some more guests on that topic. we talked about that in the last hour as well. the death toll hits 1380 in china, and u.s. says china won't let its health workers help fight the virus. magnus on george
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the shape of the recovery. george: we don't really know how long this is going to go out for, but if the infection rate stabilizes and starts to reverse by the end of this month or in march, it is quite possible, probable actually, that we will see a gradual normalization in the second quarter. but i don't think it is going to be a v-shaped pattern. alix: joining us in london is jane foley, rabobank head of fx strategy, and liz young, bny mellon investment management director of market strategy. you -- what letter are you? v-shaped? liz: we are expecting that things kind of shape out in the first quarter, a little bit of the second quarter, and everyone sort of returns in the third
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quarter. if it bleeds into the economy for a longer time, there. time, therelonger is a risk there. there are some companies that are going to be affected by this. jane: i would agree. i think what is important here is the market potentially hasn't been focusing on the chinese consumer. we have been looking at supply chains, looking at companies saying the supply chains are hurt. many people say that will be temporary and will perhaps bounce back in the next quarter, but what about the chinese consumer? it is london fashion week, and we've had some fashion goobers talking about the fact that the chinese retail is very important to their business -- some fashion gurus talking about the fact that the chinese retail is very important to their business. they are not shopping. they are not working. not all of those businesses will be -- not all of that business
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will be regained. so i tend to think this will have a longer, broader impact. it will not be so short-lived as the market isn't dissipating. neil: i agree. in the second half of the year, we have concerns over the u.s. election. if we see a sanders type of momentum building, the uncertainty around the direction of the u.s. markets, if not the economy, becomes a more pressing issue. so we have china in the first half come up initially the u.s. and the second half -- first half, sensually the u.s. in the second half -- first half, potentially the u.s. in the second half. alix: we are 1.60% on the 10 year, and equities near all-time highs. i don't get it. jane: i think --liz: i think there is still a lot of optimism in the markets. even though there is a chance the market gets to
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disappointed, it is more of a timing thing. we are still pretty sanguine on the market overall for the year. i think earnings are going to be back and loaded. there is still room for growth in markets this year, and we are still optimistic about european markets as well. i think the market is still optimistic because of earnings, because we can finally return to fundamentals this year and see some earnings growth that should hold out this rally, and because the rally so far has been reasonably broad-based. you are not seeing as much narrow leadership just by faang stocks or just buy one or two here or there. it is important to see that a number of different sectors can participate, and things like the equal weighted s&p can hold in there, instead of just the market weighted. neil: i would tend to disagree with this. i think the market in the u.s. is very concentrated in the faan
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g's. the market is down ex-faang 's. i think the market believes the fed will save the day as it did last year, so the market will price in a little more fed action. it will be interesting to see if the fed can exit the repo cutie it is doing at the moment -- the repo qe it is doing at the moment. other asset classes are more risk off than equities, so i think there's a bit of discordance in the markets at the moment. jane: i think this is largely to do with the huge savings glut we have. this is something ben bernanke started to talk about years ago. there's a huge amount of money looking for a home. savingsalking about the glut 15 years ago, really talking about the u.s., the western world, g10, etc.
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but over this last half-century, we've had a huge proportion of growth in emerging markets. not just china, but countries like india. huge. many of these countries don't have a good social safety net. people do need to save, and this money needs to go somewhere. when we wonder why we have record highs again in u.s. stock markets, when we have bonds, interest rates at such a low level, i think it is quite easy to come back and say there is just this inordinate amount of savings. the: and you can then buy dollar, equities, and treasuries at the same time. neil: i think that the valuation is something that is important. although i've got this wrong for the last four years, it seems to me that equities outside the u.s. look far more attractively valued. you get a higher income from owning them as well. if you are going to take equity
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risk, why face the over owned and pretty expensive top 25 u.s. stocks? alix: it is a fair point, and we just got a question from a bloomberg viewer, do you see the same for the shanghai comp? i assume part of that is going to be a value question as well. what do you think? liz: valuations and china are attractive right now. if we look at em on a valuation basis, valuations are obviously more attractive outside the u.s. in some cases, they are lower for a reason. as far as international developed, we are still see a nice opportunity because a lot of the headwinds in europe in 2019 have been removed. we've gotten to brexit purgatory largely behind us. we didn't see germany fall into recession like most people expected in 2019. we are still hopeful that some of those industrial production numbers come back. as far as em, because there is a
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chance of disappointment on some of this reporting in the virus, and because we think some of the estimates on how hard it is going to hit china's gdp have been a bit low, i would still be waiting out em until we get more clarity on how much it is going to affect china's gdp, the rest of southeastern asia gdp, and maybe later in the year, we see more of a stabilization and currency, and that is when valuations look attractive from a fundamental and a price basis. would generally agree, although specifically on china, i think if your central scenario is this is just a three-month hit and we are back on track quicker than a more concerned investor would have, you would expect china to bounce the fastest. so i think, depending on how you see the risk opportunity, in the medium-term, the made in 2025 campaign would suggest that all investors should be looking at china on a strategic basis. alix: we look at s&p all the time in terms of the highs, and
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argue it is disconnected from the 10 year, but we know for sure the index is composed in a way that is representative of the broader u.s. global economy. it is all tech. if you are in the s&p, you have to own big tech. neil: but two of the big tech our advertising, so that gets you to the real world. what we are seeing now is a bit of supply shock inside the system. may be corporate's will pull back on advertising. are now and google starting to be concerned. i think in the end, the real world catches up with the market. the liquidity fire from the fed has allowed the equity markets to stay pretty risk on, but the underlying fund metals at this moment are definitely slipping away. -- underlying fundamentals at this moment are definitely slipping away. alix: we are going to get much more. coming up, we are going to take
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a look at german growth, flatlining in the fourth quarter. more on the outlook for europe's largest economy and what it means for euro-dollar, sitting right at $1.08. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ with aermany enters 2020 flatlining economy and growth stagnating in the fourth quarter. equipment investment dropped. autos going to be weighing on germany going forward. still with me, neil dwane, jane foley, and liz young. what happens? jane: it is very interesting. the market has got this wrong. ,e saw euro-dollar push higher and the market has assumed that
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euro-dollar would go higher, and the market has consistently got it wrong. what is interesting about this year's story is it is not just about the dollar. i think a large part of this is about that the dollar -- is about the dollar, but we know there is a euro story here. the market may have finally got over this strong euro-dollar story. the market consensus is to be much higher. i've been in out layer for years on this with the strong dollar story come but this is really a weak dollar story on top of this. this is what makes it quite interesting. alix: why haven't we seen the big moves then? the: we've seen them for last year. it consistently comes through. i will go back to my story about asian savings. a hugelyr is advantageous transactional currency. it is advantageous in terms of
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liquidity. for many reasons, it is a practical safe haven for made types of investors. dollar strength is there, and then last year we have the u.s. story. this year particularly, we have a week euros story overlaying that, and this comes from the fact that once again, we've got disappointment in terms of german i, data -- german economic data. it will be more exposed to china , coronavirus, etc. the data has been horrible again. the year started optimistic about germany. neil: i would add that i think the dollar is the safe haven, particularly when you have concerns around china. that fiscal add is stimulus that could have been coming slower or may not arrive this year, clearly the impact
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around the supply chains will hurt germany, italy, austria, switzerland, some parts of france and eastern europe, so i think that is a concern. we already know the ecb is printing. we know there was a line in the sand at $1.05 during the eurozone crisis. with trump and trade coming to europe next, i don't think the europeans want to see the euro go much weaker because the president will be pretty aggressive about this. , think it is more a symptom another signal to me that the global economy is looking fairly wobbly at the moment. liz: i think currency has been much more of a sentiment story for the last 12 to 18 months then anything else. it has been a head scratcher for a lot of economists and a lot of people in my position, but from a sentiment perspective, the euro has not been that attractive. if you are looking for an opportunity in currency, capital is going to continue to flow
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into the dollar, especially in a year when we have a scare with this virus. we are seeing strength in the dollar early this year. we still have a call on the dollar to be slightly softening through 2020, and i still think that holds up. the big news out of germany, the fact that the economy stagnated, is still much more positive than hearing that it contracted. when we got that negative german gdp print in the second quarter of 2019, the big fear through the rest of the year is that we would have a negative rent in the third quarter, and they avoided that. to have a narrow miss, but still in expansion territory technically, i think is positive. we are not going to see a lot of talk about fiscal stimulus until we get closer to recession in the region. alix: fair point. you could definitely do a glass half-empty or full. we have a question from a terminal user. do you think it is likely euro-dollar is going to reach carrie at some point? -- reach carry at some point?
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jane: at some point. it is still a long way away. it is from these sort of positions that it is a long way off. the question is, can we get through $1.05, $1.06? i think that would look quite close to the bottom. it would say we are looking at parity right now. if we try and think about the reasons, the backdrop we would have to have to get to parity, it would all be pretty terrible. you would be looking at recession, affected politics in the eurozone, and probably the coronavirus being far more prevalent. alix: we will be back. liz dwane, jane foley, young all sticking with me. much more coming up. now?u buy cable right that is the question. this is bloomberg.
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viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." $2 billion secondary offering has priced at $767 a share, a discount of more than 4% to yesterday's close. since the start of the year, tesla shares have risen 83%. big changes on the way at royal bank of scotland. the new ceo is abandoning the bank's three century-old name and slashing its market business. rbs will be renamed natwest group. back profitparing targets. kuwait and saudi arabia will resume pumping oil production from their shared fields. the restart comes at a critical time. the project will bring more oil
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to an industry already dealing with excess supply. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. we do want to take a look at the cable rate. we30 is where we sit, but did get a nice pop yesterday in the reshuffle. do you buy cable on a cabinet reshuffle? maybe we will get more stimulus? jane: that is why it has gone up. we knew there were tensions , betweenhe chancellor number 10 and number 11 downing street. there's a chance that the new chancellor is going to be more in the pocket of downing street, the prime minister is going to be running the budget, and there could be more stimulus in line with the government's pre-election promises. but there's a big floor in this plan, growth. growth has been downgraded. the forecast for this year is just 0.8%.
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some analysis on that suggests that that meant that the chancellor would be running a big shortfall in his budget. the new chancellor has got the same growth figures, so what is he going to do? is he going to be able to spend much, or is he going to be more conservative? we have to wait and see. that might be a risk to the sterling bulls. the other risk is brexit still hasn't gone away. we still got to have the future arrangements. they have both been positioning, and there is a big gap between them. there is still the danger of a bad deal or no deal come january 1. neil: i am much more optimistic. alix: you are wobbly on global growth, but optimistic about u.k.? huh. neil: we no longer have political risk. we can have a trade deal with the u.s., australia, india, a whole lot of the rest of the world fairly quickly, and the eu
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comes to the table with its tail between its legs rather than the big gorilla it is positioning itself as this week. in the meetings we are having with clients and companies, we have been waiting for three years for some clarity. i think there's a huge amount of pent up demand and interest to get going again in the u.k.. i think their budget will be a good sign of where the economy is going to get the stimulus that is coming. it is on borrowed money. i agree, we have to think about how it is financed, but i think for the first time in a while, the u.k. is truly investable. alix: wow. neil and jane will be sticking with us. coming up, the latest read for u.s. consumers as we gear up for walmart earnings on tuesday. this is bloomberg. ♪
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retail sales in the u.s.. switch up the board. you can guess there is money moving into the dollar, money moving into bonds, that narrows the trade. euro-dollar 1.08. euros sale -- retail sales raking down on a month-to-month basis for january. backing out auto and gas, coming in .4%, beating estimates on a month on month basis. .3%,e looking at up although december was revised down or both. that was a december selling season. the retail sales control group is the feeder in the gdp, coming k when the expectation was for .3%. december revised lower. that read not great. a check in on import and export prices. watching these in relation to the trade war as well as the
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stronger dollar you have seen. for january on a year on year , exportp .3% for import up .5%. that was a surprise. we were looking for -.2%. export prices surging higher. ,till with me as neil dwane jane foley, and liz young. liz, i know we are looking at the numbers. what is your initial read? with retail sales, things coming in at expectations. i know the december numbers got revised down, but the holiday season was shorter than usual. i do not know that that is a huge issue. having retail sales at expectations is a positive thing. if we are hanging our hat on the strength of the u.s. consumer, we need that to continue. as far as import/export prices, if the actual numbers are coming in higher than we expected, we have been complaining there is no inflation.
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may be having these prices come in higher is ok. alix: fairpoint. to dig deeper into the retail sales, apparently general merchandise stores were strongest in six months. sense because we have seen the housing market as the fed continues to spill over rates. neil, do you want to be bullish on the u.s. consumer? neil: i think the underlying fabric is a cause for concern. the weather was better in january than a normal seasonal and therefore retail sales have been buoyed by more generous weather. when i look at the auto loans and the credit card rising balance and rising delinquency, i would suggest the u.s. consumer needs a pay raise to continue to support the u.s. economy in the way they have been. i agree with liz -- it looks ok. it is early days to tell. do you agree we need
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to see continued wage increases to support the consumer, or do you think we can hang in? i feel like your views might be different. liz: the consumer looks at the labor market for confirmation of being positive about their job and positive about sentiment and positive about the prospect of future spending. i think wage growth is already healthy. there is a risk that way if we continue with wage growth going up to the point it will bake through into inflation, that is when you have the concern of inflation gets to a point where we start to expect the fed to come back to the table, then we have a risk. that is one of our scenarios through 2020 that poses a risk. it is an upside scenario saying maybe the u.s. economy is closer to capacity than we think if wage growth continues and bakes through into inflation. there is also an outside chance that supply from china will be shortened because of the virus. if that bakes through to inflation, there is a risk
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inflation gets to the point where the fed has to get more hawkish. alix: what you think? ise: i think wage inflation perhaps the only answer to the mess we are in with low interest rates. if you look at countries like japan, no wage inflation, even though you have a tight labor market. you could say the same about almost every other g10 country, even australia. if we are wondering why we have such low interest rates from central banks, it is because of low inflation, it is because we have not enough wage inflation. wage inflation is what we need, and that will bring inflation we need and that will give central banks the ability to hike interest rates. ute for the only ro situation we are in. neil: when we look at developed world economies, we are creating low-wage jobs. there are uber drivers and these sort of people who do not get
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paid a lot. the only wage inflation we can see is political wage inflation, the elizabeth warren minimum wage type of inflation that .orces wages into the system i slightly disagree with jane. if we were to see interest rates rising, we would have a huge debt crisis because a lot of companies and countries cannot afford higher interest rates. you have to be careful what you wish for because we may see another rerun of the financial crisis if we were to see a real sustained rise in interest rates. jane: i take a different slant. statistics and they say the majority of jobs that have been created are not low wages. they are management and it is actually graduates and they are not seeing the wage recession we are having. young people cannot get up the property ladder, we have a
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,enerational income inequality and one of the reasons people are voting for change across the development -- across the developed world as they are not happy with a lot they have got. be a bigolitics can part of this problem. liz: i want to leave politics out of the discussion as far as i go. if we look at the numbers of wage inflation and compare that to broad inflation, wage inflation is the highest reading. it depends which one you're looking at. it is 3% or on some readings over 4%. if you are giving wage inflation to the higher demographic, to the higher earner, they tend to save that instead of spend it. if we are giving wage inflation to lower earners, that is where the spending comes from. that is some of the bifurcation in the market. if we are giving wage inflation
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to certain pockets of earners, that is where will get a boost from consumer spending. alix: on that, how do you play that? if you look at the earnings revisions for this year, they have been coming down but revenue has held in. that says to me it a margin issue that plays into the wage and how you play it. liz: that is a good point. companies are running out of ways to get creative with their income statements. if the last thing left is to raise wages, that is where it starts to run a risk of leading into regular inflation. if we are looking through the rest of the year a labor market that continues to stay tight and we continue to have more jobs than workers, you're going to see more wage inflation. i see wage inflation as the one spot in inflation that is healthy and bumping up against the capacity point. neil: the only other inflation i think we need to keep our eye on his food prices.
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china does not just have a virus issue, it has a public health issue with pork prices. we could find food prices start to grow, which could fuel a , innd for a wage increase which case i would play that through walmart. the food retailer globally are the only people who could put up prices but not see any shrinking of demand. i think if we are thinking about source of inflation going forward, i think what has happened in china could have a structural impact in the next few days. horrific whether will hurt the farming industry in the northern hemisphere. alix: i am out of here tonight, so i will miss it, but i heard there is a storm coming. rabobank and liz young, a pleasure to have you both. neil dwane sticking with me. we want to give you an update what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana: we begin with the coronavirus outbreak.
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it is getting tougher to gauge the true scope of it. that is because china has revised the data. the death toll was lower by more 1400.- to less than now there are more than 63,000 cases. u.s. officials are setting up their criticism of china's response. now to a surprising rebuke of donald trump from one of his most trusted cabinet members. barrney general william says the president's tweets and remarks about ongoing cases make his job impossible. he told abc news the commentary undercuts him. the president tweeting moments ago he has so far chosen not to engage with the doj on criminal cases. staying with the president, mr. trump vowing to veto a resolution to wage war against iran. the senate approving the measure. it is expected to be passed by the u.s. house. eight republican senators joining democrats in voting yes but they're not enough votes to
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override a presidential veto. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. bigng up, elon musk dreams dreams and gets rewarded sometimes. tesla sells $2 billion in common stocks. what does that mean for the overall auto and ev industry? interact with any of the charts we use on gtv on your terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪
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viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." i'm viviana hurtado with your bloomberg business flash. renault. ith slashed its dividends and posted
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its first net loss in a decade. the french automaker declining, plus income from nissan plunged. income plunged a worse than expected 30%. wells fargo plans to cut hundreds of workers in the philippines. some of the jobs will be moved india. that is where the bank already has 12,000 workers. wells fargo joining a push to have workers and fewer locations. we end with mark zuckerberg. he says facebook may have to pay more tax and in different places according to multiple reports. the facebook ceo speaks to a security conference tomorrow in munich. to zuckerberg is expected say he understands the frustration about how tech companies are taxed in your. i'm viviana hurtado and that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. time for bottom line. we will look at companies worth watching. we want to look at nvidia. going as for more is alex webb. neil dwane a valley almonds --
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neil dwane of allianz is still with us. revenueey said their will be $2 billion, that was higher than the analyst estimate, which was $2.8 billion. we have also seen with intel, this is about cloud. what people are putting into the clouds, operators like google, amazon, microsoft. the cloud battle is heating up. amazon has the dominant position. microsoft and google are trying to eat that pie. that means taking the processes from nvidia. alix: how do you play tech? neil: as we look into 2020, the idea of augmented reality and the new games that will be coming out through microsoft and sony is a way to play it, in which case nvidia is one of those components. whether nvidia will be affected
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by any potential flu from china, we will wait and see. clearly that may hold back. it feels in the right space at this moment in time. it is not particularly a commodity player. alix: do you get a sense this is a nvidia specific story or can their competitors benefit or is this like they are also doing something extra jazzy? alex: a similar statement from intel. they announced in outlook better than expected. they are the biggest player in cloud processing. does a little bit more high end. i think they might be slightly more cauterized from the effects of coronavirus. the high end manufacturing is done in taiwan rather than china. that might mean you are selling into china, but the actual manufacturing for them is untouched. alix: do you also by faang in
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addition to playing this kind of cycle as well or do try to find more value in these pockets that may have cyclical boost? alex: i think we are looking for the next moves forward, a bit like the feeling around 5g and edge computing. i think generally the faang, the valuations are there. a company in china not cheaply value, and i think maybe the expectations, if we were to see something of a slowdown in the u.s. and maybe even a recession, you would have to say maybe the path of the cloud would slow. depending on how your view of it, you can take as much risk or as little as you want. alix: what do you think? alex: i also have questions about the valuation of some of these companies, particularly when you look toward regulatory risk. what is interesting is if you compare the valuation trend of amazon, facebook, google, apple.
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apple used to trade at a discount. now it has closed that valuation gap and traits 25 times earnings. facebook will be a 30, apple will be sub 20. we look for the regulatory risk, but the some of the companies, particular price book -- critically facebook, is priced in, maybe less so with amazon and google. alix: the other company we want to focus on his tesla. $760 a share. joining me with more insight is colin mckerracher of bloomberg nef. this is a way of talking about ev. you have daimler coming its dividend and workforce as they ship to ev and then tesla saying i will raise money because people keep throwing money at us. colin: you can look at it a couple different ways. they started with the capex budget last year that allow them to improve their financial. that ran up the stock.
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that might be giving them too much credit. it might be a question of their is an opportunity to easily raise money. the global auto market is looking shaky. year, theydown last were down the year after that. having all of that money in the door when they have all of these projects they're trying to build is a good thing. alix: bloomberg nef is one of the more aggressive on when we see the adoption pick up. does the global slowdown slow this down? how do you see it? the market is behaving a little more like the broader auto market as it gets bigger. you saw january sales data in china way down for the global auto sector, also down for ev's. in the past ev's have bumped that trend. how you look at ev's right
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now? neil: we cannot get as excited as u.s. investors about the opportunity because we are not sure it is the right technology. it is not clear all electricity will be produced on a renewable basis, in which case if you are using coal to fuel your tesla, is that helping to fight climate change? what we are starting to see is the removal of subsidies. if you go to norway, you are fighting -- you are finding audi has half the market, whereas a few years ago tesla had 100%. as we see the competition emerge , both at the top end and the lower end, it'll be interesting to see whether the quality of tesla products stands up to the test. colin: on the environmental side, we have done a lot of work looking at this. even in a place that has a lot of coal fire, you still have an advantage from an ev.
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it is marginal if it is all coal, but most places have a share of renewables. the environmental comparison for an electric vehicle is better. there is a lot of competition coming. tesla relishes that competition. they like squaring up for a fight. you see more competition. they do have a technology edge. the theme for june and august in tokyo for the olympics is hydrogen. i think we need to open our eyes that there will be many different solutions and the valuation of tesla implies they will be the only one standing. alix: this is a great point. if you look at china and the shift to cleaner cars, there is fuel technology, there is the talk of hydrogen. i do not get the same type of intense conversation for the u.s.. colin: the challenge with hydrogen is where you get the demand in the short term? in the long term, if we have this level of demand, here's
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what happens to the price curve and the cost curve. the real question is where does the short-term demand come from. what is the killer app for hydrogen in the short-term? more and more automakers are backing away from the passenger car market and saying heavy duty trucking is a good application for fuel cells. i think you will see more knowledge meant are different solutions for different segments of the market. i am not that optimistic on passenger fuel cell vehicles, certainly not in the next few years. alix: dubai autos right now? -- do you buy autos right now? neil: my concern is we have all bought a car on cheap money because volkswagen her forte can borrow cheaper than jp morgan. they have done so and they have given us free money to buy their cars. i think they have pulled forward a lot of their demand and a lot engineered,are well most people are not ashamed to buy a 10-year-old car.
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alix: my husband wants me to get a new car, that i am like it is only nine years old. colin, thanks for joining us, and neil dwane of allianz, great to have you on set. we will have more on tesla as part of my special that airs next friday. do not miss that. coming up, more on nvidia and the trade of the day rate we'll talk about the technical traits coming up in today's technically speaking. tune into bloomberg radio heard across the u.s. on sirius xm channel 119 and the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: time for technically speaking. we will set you up at with some trades. bill maloney joints me now. listen to bill on the bloomberg at squa .
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talk about nvidia. we were just breaking down its earnings. bill: they reported after the bell last night, up 6% in the premarket, off to 89. it had a massive run-up 2015 to 2018, then you had the aggressive selloff, the bottom around 125, it has been in this uptrend since. it will break out of that channel on the open. look for resistance at 293, which is the all-time high, then above that your round figure of $300, 293 dollars your first level at nvidia. alix: roku shares also rising and premarket. what you see on the technical side? ,ill: they are up around 9% offered around $150. 159 for resistance 153 to then the november high around 169. your first resistance is in the gap area around 153. alix: let's round it out with
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expedia. it is jumping. it has double-digit profit growth. what do you see? colin: that stock -- bill: that stock is up 12%, it will open up in this gap, the gap goes back to november. resistance around $125, then $132. your first resistance $125. david: appreciated. bill maloney, i will catch you on tuesday. that does it for me. coming up on the open, robert tipp, pgim fixed income cio will be joining jonathan ferro. the equity market hanging in. treasuries still a bid. this is bloomberg. ♪
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every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪
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jonathan: coming up, coronavirus confusion. the white house seeking transparency. u.s. retail sales raising questions about consumer demand. republican senator showing concern. with 30 minutes until the opening bell, here is your friday morning price action. equity futures giving up the mornings gains after a soft youtube -- a soft retail sales print. the bid is in the bond market. yields lower four basis points. in foreign-exchange, the dollar rolls over. to 1.0 854.vances let's begin with the big issue over the last 12 months. rates in the driving seat. with me is michael hans, robert mazza ofgim and david direction. let's talk about it. low rates. you ew


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